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Monday, February 16, 2009

High efficiency irrigation

Irrigated farming occupies a significant place in the country’s economy which is primarily agro-based. Of the total cultivated area of 23 million hectares, about 18 million hectares are irrigated. Important sources of irrigation include surface water, rainfall and underground water. Surface water, however, is largely used to irrigate crops.

Our irrigation system is one of the largest in the world that comprises reservoirs, barrages, inter-link canals, irrigation canals and major and minor water courses. To add to this, groundwater pumped through tube-wells constitute important source of irrigation.

Nevertheless, conveyance, distributive and irrigation efficiency of the canal irrigation system is extremely low due to huge conveyance losses from main canals and their branches, from main watercourses, from farmers’ watercourses and from irrigation fields through evaporation, seepage, percolation and overflow due to unlined canals, poor designed and maintained watercourses, defective irrigation practices, inequity in water distribution and lack of precision land level ing. As a result, crop yields are 50-80 per cent below their potential, contributing to plausible gap between actual and potential yields of arable crops.

This necessitates improving irrigation efficiency of the existing system so as to use available water resources effectively and to prevent wastage of land and water resources. On the one hand, a major project of construction, repair and rehabilitation of barrages, head works and re-modeling of canals, regular desilting of canals, distributa ries and minors, redesigning and improvement of watercourses, post-improvement care by community participation approach and precision land leveling through laser technology needs to be implemented, while on the other hand, the farmers are re quired to adopt recommended methods of irrigation.

Additional area could be brought under cultivation by plugging water losses. For instance, many acres have been brought under cultivation due to availability of additional water in Multan, Bahawalpur, Rahim Yar Khan, Rajanpur and other backward areas of Punjab due to rehabilitation of Taunsa Barrage which is playing a significant role in promotion of agriculture as well as socio-economic condition of the farmers. Likewise, abundant water has become available for crop cultivation in Bhakar, Layya, Khushab, Muzaffargarh and other areas owing to remodeling of the Thal Canal.

Construction of small dams to enhance water storage capacity for agriculture is crucial in the backdrop of lack of national consensus on construction of large dams. Small dams constructed in Rawalpindi, Jhelum, Chakwal and other arid areas are greatly helping in storage of water for agriculture purposes.

The farming community needs to shift from traditional methods of irrigation to modern methods such as drip irrigation, sprinkler irrigation etc. Drip irrigation is an effective technique to improve irrigation efficiency, saving water and protecting land form water logging and salinity. Moreover, this system is of great importance in arid and semi-arid regions such as Balochistan.

Sprinkler irrigation is another technique to utilise water equivalent to the water requirement of a crop and application of excess of water which may cause deep percolation and water logging could be avoided. Thus, this system considerably increases irrigation efficiency.

Lack of precision land leveling has been contributing to application losses up to 50 per cent, uneven distribution of irrigation water, leaching of nutrients, water logging and salinity, loss of cultivated land due to excessive bunds, trouble in cultural practices and lower yield of crops.

Realising the importance of land leveling, the Punjab government has launched a programme of providing the farming community laser sets in irrigated areas for development of irrigated agriculture which is the hub of farming activities. It is estimated that this programme would help in curtailing 50 per cent application water losses and increase in cultivated area.

At the farm level, conservation practices such as zero-tillage sowing of wheat in rice-wheat cropping system could increase water use efficiency by 20 per cent, decrease cultivation cost of wheat by about 82 per cent, reduce energy consumption by 81 per cent and increase yield by 15 per cent.

Likewise, suitable sowing method also helps improving irrigation effi ciency. For instance, bed-furrow sowing of wheat and cotton increase irrigation efficiency up to 30 per cent.

Moreover, appropriate cropping pattern could have considerable effect on water saving. For instance, spring planted sugarcane crop requires 64-80 acre-inch of water per acre, while autumn cane crop requires 80-100 acreinch of water per acre. Thus a crop water requirement is an important yardstick that could be used while selecting a crop in a particular region.

Importantly, the farming community needs to optimise plant population, use recommended irrigation methods, ensure timely sowing of crop, manage weeds free fields, adopt effective plant protection measures, optimal tillage during fallowing, use organic manures and where possible use mulches.

Problems like water theft, conflicts on the issues of water distribution, cutting of trees from canal banks and many other pilfering activities are prevailing unabated.

Therefore, irrigation strategy encompassing appropriate measures for checking water theft from water courses and canals would directly benefit the farmers located at the tail ends. Socio-economic uplift of the farming community in irrigated tract is greatly associated with steady supply of irrigation water essential for increasing farm productivity.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Fuel of Future

Hydrogen is being considered as a fuel for the future the world over. It is an environmentally benign replacement for gasoline, diesel, heating oil, natural gas and other fuels. However, producing hydrogen using conventional methods defeats the purpose of using hydrogen as a clean alternative fuel.
Molecular hydrogen has the highest energy content per unit weight among the known gaseous fuels with heating value of 143 GJ per tones, and is the only carbonfree fuel which when burned, only produces water as a combustion product.
Burning hydrogen not only has the potential to meet a wide variety of end use applications but it also does not contribute to greenhouse emission, acid rain or ozone depletion.
Currently hydrogen is used basically as primary feedstock in industrial processes, including petroleum refining, petrochemical manufacturing, glass purification and in fertilisers. It is also used in the semiconductor industry and for the hydrogenation of unsaturated fats in vegetable oil.
Approximately, 90 per cent of the hydrogen produced annually worldwide is from fossil fuels, mainly by steam reforming of natural gas and petroleum derivatives. Other industrial methods use coal gasification and water electrolysis. Each method of hydrogen production requires a source of energy — thermal, electrolytic or photolytic (light) energy.
Hydrogen produced by steam reformation costs approximately three times more that the natural gas per unit of energy produced. Also, producing hydrogen from electrolysis using electricity will cost slightly less than two times the cost of hydrogen from natural gas.
The production of hydrogen from nonfossil fuel sources, such as solar, hydropower, wind, nuclear, etc., has becomes central for better transition to hydrogen economy.
Unicellular green algae offer an attractive choice in the production of hydrogen from water via the process of photosynthesis. Biological processes, unlike their chemical or electrochemical counterparts, are catalysed by micro organisms in an aqueous environment at ambient temperature and pressure. Biological hydrogen production has advantages, when compared to photo-electrochemical or thermo-chemical processes, that include low energy requirement and investment cost. Light absorption by the photosynthetic apparatus is essential for the generation of hydrogen gas. While regular green algae absorb most of the light falling on them, engineered algae have less chlorophyll and let some light through. In University of California, Berkeley, Melis and his colleagues are designing algae that have less chlorophyll so that they absorb less sunlight. When grown in large, open bioreactors in dense cultures, the chlorophyll-deficient algae will let sunlight penetrate to the deeper algae layers and thereby utilise sunlight more efficiently. The critical enzymatic component of this photosynthetic reaction is the reversible hydrogenase enzyme, which reduces protons with high potential energy electrons to form hydrogen. During normal photosynthesis, algae focus on using the sun's energy to convert carbon dioxide and water into glucose, releasing oxygen in the process. Only about three to five per cent of photosynthesis leads to hydrogen. Because hydrogenase is sensitive to oxygen, this hydrogen production must be carried out in an anaerobic environment Photosynthetic hydrogen production by green algae involves water splitting to produce hydrogen and oxygen. Unfortunately, hydrogen production by this process is quite ineffective since it simultaneously produces oxygen, which inhibits the hydrogenase enzyme.

Thus, during light reaction, hydrogen evolution ceases due to an accumulation of oxygen. Therefore, the prerequisite for photohydrogen production by green algae is that they have to adapt to an anaerobic condition. By exposing the cells to specific conditions, scientists are able to modify photosynthesis so that oxygen will not act as the final electron carrier of the electron transport chain; rather hydrogen will allow the cells to release molecular hydrogen as opposed to molecular oxygen. Melis estimates that if the entire capacity of the photosynthesis of the algae could be directed toward hydrogen production, 80 kilograms of hydrogen could be produced commercially per acre per day. The yield of hydrogen production currently achieved in the laboratory corresponds to only 15 to 20 per cent of the measured capacity of the photosynthetic apparatus for electron transport. In a laboratory, Melis worked with low-density cultures and have thin bottles so that light penetrates from all sides. Because of this, the cells use all the light falling on them. But in a commercial bioreactor, where dense algae cultures would be spread out in open ponds under the sun, the top layers of algae absorb all the sunlight but can only use a fraction of it. In Pakistan, hydrogen is largely produced in the fertiliser industry from natural gas, which is used for the production of anhydrous ammonia — the building block for nitrogen fertiliser. On an average, the fertiliser sector has consumed 15.6 per cent of our natural gas. The government provides an indirect subsidy to fertiliser manufacturers. As on January 1, 2008, the balance recoverable natural gas reserves have been estimated at 31.266 trillion cubic feet. With the present consumption rate of 3,826 million cubic feet per day, these resources will last only 20 years at the most. According to The Energy Security Action Plan of the Planning Commission, Pakistan will be facing a shortfall in gas supplies rising from 1.4 billion cubic feet (BCF) per day in 2012 to 2.7 BCF in 2015, and escalating to 10.3 BCF perday by the year 2025. It is, therefore, a matter of economic security to develop alternative hydrogen resources to avoid mid century energy crises in the country. The advent of hydrogen will bring about technological developments in many fields, including power generation, agriculture, the automotive industry and other as yet unforeseen applications. It will increase employment, stimulate the economy and will have a positive impact on the environment in which atmospheric pollution is all but alleviated and the socalled greenhouse effect is mitigated.

Thursday, February 12, 2009

US Economy Bail Out package of $789

Congressional leaders reached agreement on a compromise $789bn stimulus deal on Wednesday as Tim Geithner hit back against widespread criticism that his separate US financial rescue plan lacks specifics.
The stimulus package, which is likely to be signed into law by President Barack Obama by his target date of Monday, is smaller than both versions individually passed by the House and Senate.After days of intense debate, the speed of agreement reflected pressure exerted by the White House to reach a deal. It trimmed tax cuts and health and education spending to keep the figure below $800bn, a ceiling insisted on by moderate Republicans and Democrats in the Senate.
The other countries are also being persuaded to do more to save the global economy. “We will certainly be asking the others about their plans and encouraging them to take bold measures to help sustain the global economy,” the treasury officer is being so.
Earlier, Mr Geithner told the Senate regarding the financial rescue plan: “I completely understand the desire for details and commitments. But we are going to do this carefully.” He left the door open for a request for more bail-out funds at a later date. “We want to be careful before we come to you and ask for additional resourcesor authority that we have done so with as much care and consideration on design as possible,” he said.
Mr Geithner said regulators would use a stress test for big banks under the rescue planto “provide a more realistic, forward-looking assessment” of the losses they might face. This could require banks to step up provisioning.
The rescue plan was still attracting criticism on Wednesday. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Associates, an advisory firm, said Mr Geithner was “an empty suit with an empty plan”. But Lawrence Summers, director of the National Economic Council, said it reminded him of the initially negative reaction to the successful 1994 Mexico bail-out.
Investors said they could be interested in investing in toxic assets alongside the government providing there was attractive government financing and guarantees – but said there was little to go on in Tuesday’s announcement. “I don’t know who, exactly, they’re talking about, or how they’re going to lure people in,” one private equity investor said.

GM crops (Genetically modified crops)

Genetically modified crops are continuing to spread across the world’s farmland, according to the leading annual survey of GM in agriculture, published on Wednesday. The International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications (ISAAA) said the global area of GM crops increased from 114m ha in 2007 to 125m ha in 2008, producing a harvest worth $7.5bn. The number of farmers planting GM crops rose from 12m in 22 countries to 13.3m in 25 countries.Clive James, ISAAA chairman, said the most significant development last year was the first commercial planting of biotech crops in two African countries: maize in Egypt and cotton in Burkina Faso. Both crops contain “Bt genes” from bacteria, which kill insect pests. In 2007 South Africa had been the only country on the continent with GM plants (cotton, maize and soya).
The third country where GM crops were planted for the first time last year was Bolivia, where farmers grew herbicide-resistant soya; it is the ninth country in Latin America to adopt the technology. One new GM crop, herbicide-resistant sugar beet, was launched last year in the US and Canada.
In Europe the area sown with Bt maize, the only GM crop approved for planting in the EU, was little changed from the previous year at 107,000 ha. While France suspended the planting of GM maize, this was balanced by a 21 per cent increase in seven other European countries.
But US farmers are responsible for half the world’s GM acreage. They planted 62.5m ha with biotech crops in 2008.
Crops with “stacked traits” are becoming increasingly important, the ISAAA report shows. These contain two or more genetic modifications in the same plant – usually a combination of herbicide and insect resistance. Planting with stacked traits increased by 23 per cent to 27m ha in 2008.
The ISAAA review argues that biotech crops “make an impressive contribution to sustainable agriculture”, by increasing yields of food, fibre and biofuels while reducing agriculture’s environmental footprint.
Of the cumulative economic gains of $44bn over 10 years of growing GM crops, the report attributed 44 per cent to yield increases and 56 per cent to reduced production costs, including the use of 359,000 tonnes less pesticide.
Looking to the future, ISAAA says the most important new biotech trait will be drought tolerance, because drought is much the greatest constraint to increased agricultural productivity worldwide. ISAAA is a non-profit organisation based at Cornell University in New York and with branches in Africa and Asia. The first drought-resistant maize for temperate regions will to be launched in the US by 2012. A drought-resistant variety for tropical regions of Africa, where it is most needed, could follow by 2017, it is expected.
Friends of the Earth published its own report on GM crops on Wednesday with a very different message. Their cultivation “is still confined to a handful of countries with export-oriented intensive farming”, the environmental group said. “The most widely grown GM crop, soy, is grown mostly as high protein animal feed for export to the UK and Europe. GM soy monocultures in South America are wiping out forests, causing massive climate emissions and forcing communities off their lands.”
The GM crops are making inroads into developing countries rapidly. Pakistan will not be an exception in the long run. The BT Cotton is already being grown in some areas according to some credible reports. But before doing that a careful analysis in needed before handing over our food chain to conglomerates.

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Habit of checklist a cure of many ills

After he landed US Airways Flight 1549 on the icy waters of the Hudson, Captain Chesley Sullenberger was lauded as a hero for guiding his 155 passengers to safety. But what about the role of his co-pilot, Jeffrey Skiles, and his checklist? The events of January 15 in New York might well have resulted in casualties were it not also for Mr Skiles’ faithful execution of his emergency engine-failure and water-ditching checklists. Gary Klein, a cognitive psychologist, says such lists are vital to those who make critical decisions under pressure: “The Hudson River pilots didn’t have a half-hour to decide what to do with the engines. Instead they need a checklist that has been compiled by people who have seen these situations before and considered the ways to respond.”

Lists of repetitive yet critical steps in stressful situations are familiar to airline pilots, firefighters and wedding planners. But managers in sectors including finance and healthcare are also beginning to be persuaded of the merit of low-tech prompts that require no more than a sheet of A4 and a pencil.Mr Klein, chief scientist of Applied Research Associates, a software supplier to the US military, says checklists are more than just a memory aid. “They are a safeguard against interruptions and they help teams co-ordinate. If you can trust everyone on your team or crew to follow the checklist, it makes everyone’s actions predictable.”

“Checklists clarify and make explicit what the expectations are. But you also need to create a culture that allows and encourages cross-checking.” Dr Pronovost prescribes different types of checklist according to the nature and risk-profile of the task (see below). The most basic is a series of read-and-do actions completed by just one person.

For One hour Globe will be switched off

  • 377 cities already committed, and double the number of countries that participated in 2008
  • Archbishop Desmond Tutu leads call for action on climate change
  • Christ The Redeemer statue to turn off its lights
  • Iconic Obama artist Shepard Fairey joins campaign
February 5, 2009: With eight weeks still to go before people around the world switch off their lights for Earth Hour, the public awareness raising campaign on climate change is showing signs of being the greatest voluntary action the world has ever witnessed.
The lights out initiative, which began in Sydney in 2007 as a one-city environmental campaign, has evolved into a grassroots action that has captured the attention of the citizens of the world. In 2008, 371 cities across 35 countries turned their lights out in a united call for action on climate change.
Now, with almost two months still remaining before Earth Hour 2009, that number has already been eclipsed, with 377 cities across 74 countries now committed to turning off their lights for one hour at 8.30pm on 28 March.
WWF Director General, Mr James Leape, said he is optimistic about the campaigns potential to drive key decision making on the issue of climate change.
With hundreds more cities expected to sign up to switch off in the coming months, Earth Hour 2009 is setting the platform for an unprecedented global mandate for action on climate change, he said.
The list of cities confirming their participation in Earth Hour 2009 includes 37 national capitals and some of the great cities of the world, including London, Beijing, Rome, Moscow, Los Angeles, Rio de Janeiro, Hong Kong, Dubai, Singapore, Athens, Buenos Aires, Toronto, Sydney, Mexico City, Istanbul, Copenhagen, Manila, Las Vegas, Brussels, Cape Town and Helsinki.
Along with the great metropolises of the world, Earth Hour 2009 will also see the lights go out on some of the most recognised landmarks on the planet, including Christ the Redeemer in Rio de Janeiro, Table Mountain in Cape Town, Merlion in Singapore, Sydney Opera House, CN Tower in Toronto, Millennium Stadium in Cardiff and the worldís tallest constructed building Taipei 101.
A host of high profile ambassadors across the world have also lent their support to the campaign, most notably Nobel Peace Prize recipient Archbishop Desmond Tutu and Academy Award-winning actress Cate Blanchett. Shepard Fairey, the artist who created the iconic imagery for Barack Obama in the recent US Presidential Election, has agreed to create artwork for the Earth Hour campaign.
Earth Hour Executive Director, Mr Andy Ridley, said the 2009 campaign is an opportunity for the people of the world to cast their vote on this important global issue.
Earth Hour by its very nature is the essence of grassroots action. This is the opportunity for individuals from all corners of the globe to unite in a single voice and demand action on climate change, said Mr Ridley.
2009 is a critical year for action on climate change, with the worldís leaders due to meet at the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December to sign a new deal to supersede the Kyoto Protocol.

Earth Hour

Earth Hour at 8:30pm Saturday March 28 2009!
Earth Hour will be celebrated on March 28, 2009. Cities already listed to participate in Earth Hour 2009 include Cape Town, Chicago, Copenhagen, Dubai, Hong Kong, Istanbul, Las Vegas, Lisbon, London, Los Angeles, Manila, Mexico City, Moscow, Nashville, Oslo, Rome, San Francisco, Singapore, Sydney, Toronto, and Warsaw.
On this special night, the world will witness some of the most recognisable landmarks on the planet dim the lights in support of decisive action on climate change. Icons switching off include the world’s tallest hotel building in Dubai - the Burj Dubai, the tallest free-standing structure in the Americas - the CN Tower in Toronto, Moscow's Federation Tower and in Rome - Quirinale - the official residence of the President of the Italian Republic, Giorgio Napolitano.
Auckland's Sky Tower - the tallest tower in the Southern Hemisphere will go dark, joined by Australia’s iconic sails of the Sydney Opera House and across in Cape Town, South Africa, the iconic Table Mountain will mark Earth Hour by turning off its flood lights.
Earth Hour 2008
Where did the lights go off?
From the President of Fiji to the residents of Santa Cruz in Bolivia, individuals around the world turned off the lights off in their homes and businesses.
Major participation took place in more then 25 major cities, on 6 continents, including Chicago, Copenhagen, Manila, Tel Aviv, Bangkok, Dublin and Toronto.
In total more than 400 more cities signed up to support this event in 2008.
Lights off at The Sydney Opera House, San Francisco's Golden Gate Bridge and Toronto's CN Tower meant world-famous city skylines disappeared for an hour while celebrities like Nelly Furtado hosted acoustic concerts for fans.
Join this campaign and spread this message to every human. As a nation and as an individual that we should care about mother nature.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

London Olympics Oppertunity to multiply your investment

The London mayor announced a legacy plan for the London Olympics. This visionary plan of 30 years in East of London offers you golden opportunity in multiply your investment if you are smart enough to think wisely and invested in the areas where you have comparative advantages over others.
The London Olympics will create “a thriving district of new communities”, the mayor and ministers pledged on Tuesday as they published a detailed masterplan for the legacy to be left by the 2012 Games.London mayor, expressed confidence that the £1bn legacy plan would boost prosperity in east London and signal the area’s “new importance in a 21st century London”.The masterplan includes proposals to build a 1,000-pupil secondary school in the Olympic stadium, which would have access to the sporting venues left after 2012. The mayor’s determination to create an Olympic university using the facilities built for the broadcast centre are also included in the plan, as well as a hub for creative and technology-based businesses.The plan also envisages the creation of 10,000 homes, in addition to up to 3,000 in the Olympic village, and 10,000 jobs on top of those created by the Stratford City retail and business development.The plan sets out precise plans for the regeneration of the area around Stratford and Hackney Wick following criticisms from Mr Johnson last year that planning for the games legacy, one of the central planks of the London Olympic bid, had been badly neglected and was behind schedule.
he mayor’s advisers hope a wide-ranging planning application will lessen the risk for developers and encourage private sector funding of the legacy projects. Although they acknowledge that the recession has brought private sector investment to a halt, they stress that the plan covers a 30-year development period after 2012.The plan sets out the vision of new communities surrounded by parklands and reclaimed waterways. It includes plans to house the National Skills Academy for Sports in the stadium as well as the English Institute of Sport. The stadium will host athletic events but retain the potential to stage other sports and leisure events, such as concerts. There will also be an arts academy and three new primary schools in the area.
In my view this shall be a place that should provide opportunities for local people and must become a real powerhouse for prosperity in the UK and in London.

Lowest Home Sales in UK over the Last 30 years.

In UK, surveyors sold fewer homes per agency in the three months to January than at any time in the past 30 years, according to the latest monthly survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. The average number of transactions, at 9.9 for each office over the past three months, is down only marginally from 10 in December. Nevertheless, the profession has noted such a large rise in inquiries from potential buyers that it is decidedly optimistic. Those surveyors reporting a rise in new-buyer inquiries rose last month to 16 per cent more than those reporting a fall. That compares with 37 per cent more surveyors reporting a drop in inquiries in January last year. In London, the turnround was even more dramatic, with 38 per cent more surveyors saying the number of inquiries rose, up from 1 per cent more saying they were falling back in July 2008.
Anecdotal comments from London agents in the survey suggest that the weak pound is spurring interest from continental buyers who would be paying in euros. The apparent disconnection between new-buyer inquiries and actual sales has puzzled some economists, who have seen inquiries as a leading indicator of demand. Economists at Nationwide, unveiling their most recent house price index, suggested that lack of financing might be delaying buyer interest being translated into sales.

Offshore oil exploraition

Sindh is the largest producer of oil and gas with 72 per cent of gas and 57 per cent of oil production in the country. Efforts are being made to explore and exploit more onshore and offshore reserves of oil and gas in the province. Government is also planning a new hydrocarbons policy with more incentives for domestic and foreign investors. The ministry of petroleum and natural resources has signed a number of joint exploration and production sharing agreements (EPSAs) for offshore oil exploration in the Arabian Sea touching Badin, Karachi and Thatta. Arabian Sea was declared as Zero Zone which comprised of Indus North, Indus X, Indus Y and Indus Z. Approximately an area of 4,170sq km was given to different multinational companies including British Petroleum (blocks U,V, and W in Indus Delta), ENI (blocks M, N and C), PETRONAS ,with partners like TOTAL 40 per cent, OMV 30 per cent, MGCL 10 per cent and subsidiary PETRONAS Carigali Pak Ltd, Tullow and OGDCL (blocks G and H.). It was claimed that an investment of $3.19 million is envisaged during the first two years of the project.
The mismanagement of marine resources and lack of enforcement of environmental laws, have made the environment and local peoples’ livelihood unsustainable. Coastal and marine resource degradation is increasing. Coastal areas have a population of 1.2 million. Around 33 per cent of the country’s population lives below the poverty line and tragically, 80 per cent of this ratio resides in that area. Due to shortage of fresh water flows, fish stocks are declining, and commercially important marine species are fast disappearing. Water, air, and land are being contaminated. In the Human Development Index of 2007, Badin which produces almost 40 per cent of the total oil and gas reserves of the province stands among the country’s poorest districts. Because of shortage of river water in downstream delta areas, sea intrusion has destroyed 1.6 million acres of fertile and agriculture land. The fishing sector is under tremendous pressure. The fisher communities are both hopeful and suspicious of the offshore oil development. They hope for new job opportunities and socio-economic wellbeing but fear the destruction of their environment, fishing grounds and the disappearance of their culture and livelihoods. The offshore oil and gas exploration pose a threat to the marine resources of the region, to the coastal waters, the bays, wetlands, reindeer pastures and salmon spawning grounds that make up the delicate human and natural ecosystem of the coastal region of Sindh.An oil slick will be catastrophic, both for the natural environment and the humans who depend on it. There are legal bindings for the protection of environment and livelihood of the people living in the coastal areas of Sindh but in the Petroleum Concession Agreement (PCA) and Exploration and Production Sharing Agreements (EPSA), there is scant regard for it. Schedule of Marine Research Fees on the Offshore Oil and Gas Exploration and Production says very little about the protection of the said resources, human livelihood and areas.
In the case of offshore exploration, the protection of environment, eco systems and socio-economic wellbeing of the indigenous poor people of the coastal areas needs to be given priority. The people of Sindh should be the main beneficiaries of the of natural resources of the province.

Monday, February 9, 2009

Alternate energy cars

If you care about alternative energy cars, if you ever hoped to drive one. If you ever wanted to be supportive and help make cars happen then now is the time to act on a VERY SPECIFIC ISSUE:
There is no more investment money for alternative energy cars. The Venture Capital market is dead and may never come back. IF, it comes back, Tesla’s problems have put such a bad taste in the VC’s mouth that they will never invest in cars again and those few that did invest in a few car companies have proven that they have no comprehension of how a car company works.
Detroit and the oil industry has managed to block alternative energy cars for decades.
BUT, now, a single door, a last chance has opened. Money was approved and banked, on a emergency fast track basis called the Section 136 DOE ATVM but it was supposed to be released last year and it has been either stalled intentionally by Detroit and Big Oil or mismanaged by those with no idea what they are doing or mis-used by those exploiting the interest revenue on the $25B sitting in Treasury.
Most of the alternative car companies have applied for this money, they are dying in this economy and they all planned for receipt of funds long before this.

What can you do? Tell those in charge to get this money released today.

Today: Call the White House at 202-456-1414

Today: Call Steven Chu, the new head of the DOE at 1-202-586-5000

Today: Call CNN and demand an expose at 800-CNN-NEWS

Please re-post this and forward it to your friends.

Sunday, February 8, 2009

A better time to buy car

There's never been a better time to buy a car. On the other hand, there's never been a scarier or more confusing time, either. There are big incentives out there and dealers are discounting like crazy as they try to get aging inventory off their lots. But consumers are understandably worried about the financial health of the automakers they may be buying from, especially domestic manufacturers. So, is it worth taking the deal? Here are some points to consider. The product: If it weren't for all the financial trouble, this would be a great time buy a car from either General Motors or Ford.
GM has some really outstanding products, including the award-winning Chevrolet Malibu, new large three-row SUVs - the GMC Acadia, Buick Enclave, Saturn Outlook and Chevrolet Traverse - and the Cadillac CTS, a world-class mid-size luxury sedan. Ford (F, Fortune 500), meanwhile, has successfully attacked its past quality problems. Now when you buy a Ford car or crossover you can expect the same kind of dependability that was once the hallmark of Japanese brands like Toyota and Honda, according to Consumer Reports. Beyond dependability, vehicles like the Fusion mid-sized sedan, a new, more powerful 2009 Escape crossover and the Flex large crossover are just good cars that offer practicality, style and excellent fuel economy.
Meanwhile, Chrysler has been lagging its competitors in dependability and overall product quality. The new Dodge Ram truck, with a sharper design, nicer interior and better handling than competitors' big rigs, is one product that's arguably superior, if you're looking for a truck that's better looking and more enjoyable to drive.
The prices: Auto sales are forecast to stay low until at least the end of 2009. And while some think car prices will continue to drop, they probably won't. Manufacturers have been drastically cutting production. That means that inventories will get lower, manufacturers will have less need to pile on incentives and dealers won't be as worried about getting cars off their lots quickly. So, from a price perspective, this really is the best time to buy. On many Ford, Chrysler and GM models, you could even get below-wholesale prices, according to pricing data at AOL Autos.
The incentives: Right after GM's financing partner, GMAC, got its own government aid package in late December, GM (GM, Fortune 500) announced it was offering 0% financing on selected products. Unfortunately for car shoppers, the deal is limited to just the Saab 9-3 and 9-5. For SUV shoppers, the 0% deal is limited to the Chevrolet Trailblazer and its variants, including the Saab 9-7X. These older truck-based designs are outclassed by competitors and even by GM's own crossover vehicles. Still, GM is offering low-rate financing on other, better vehicles that can still save you hundreds of dollars even it's not 0%. Those rates could make it a good time to pick up one of those more attractive offerings like the CTS, Malibu or Traverse. GM is also offering big rebates on many models.
For its part, Ford is offering its "Employee Pricing Plus" program and, in many cases, they're adding big rebates on top of the price discounts.The risks: Depreciation, the difference between what you pay for a car and what you can ultimately trade it in or sell it for, is the single biggest cost of car ownership.
And that could offset the savings if the resale value of your car takes a steep dive. The financial troubles of America's automakers have led to more than-than-usual uncertainty about that. Looking at Kelley Blue Book value data, once a car brand ceases production, the resale value of vehicles bearing that brand drops fast. That's true even if the manufacturer stays in business, as happened with GM's Oldsmobile brand and Chrysler's Plymouth. So if you're looking at purchasing a Saturn or Saab, for instance, keep in mind that GM is reconsidering the future of those brands. Then there's the scary prospect that GM or Chrysler themselves might not survive the next couple of years. It's probably a safe bet that they will, with government help, but no-one can say for sure.
If the very worst were to happen and these automakers were to completely go out of business, some of their brands would likely carry on. Chrysler's Jeep brand, for instance, has already outlived several previous owners and no doubt would again. Some other company will pick up the business Even if GM were turn out all its lights, brands like Cadillac, with its unique luxury image, and Buick, which is a huge success in China, would probably carry on somehow.
Ford is the lone Detroit automaker not seeking immediate government assistance. So, from a business perspective, they seem like the safest bet for longevity. Certainly, the Ford brand itself has a secure future. Around the world, the Ford blue oval is a strong brand and Ford is putting even more emphasis on strengthening it.
For car buyers, buying the best cars from the strongest brands is always the best play, though. Ultimately, that's not good news for any of the domestic manufacturers. Despite suffering its first operating loss since 1950, no-one is questioning the long term viability of Toyota. Or that of Honda, either. Both companies also make reliable cars that are, at worst, competitive with Detroit offerings and they have better resale value, too. Both are also offering incentives like 0% financing. Despite Detroit's big improvements in all-around competitiveness and product quality, America's financial crisis will drive even more consumers to buy Japanese cars even as the federal government to save America's automakers.

Fuel Efficient Vehicle in USA

The Department of Energy has received the first applications for $25 billion in low-interest federal loans intended to spur development of fuel-efficient vehicles and components.
The Energy Department reported 34 applications were filed for the Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing Incentive Program, part of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. The money is not related to the government bailout of the auto industry.
a maker of lithium-ion batteries for hybrid, plug-in electric and pure electric vehicles, applied for a $480 million loan with an estimated annual interest rate of less than 4%. The New York-based company also makes software to customize complete battery systems for commercial vehicles.
Ener1 said with the funding it will be able to double the manufacturing capacity of its Indiana lithium-ion battery subsidiary, EnerDel.
EnerDel should be able to produce 600,000 hybrid electric vehicle packs per year at its existing plant by 2011, and build a second larger plant capable of producing battery packs for up to 1.2 million hybrid electric vehicles by 2015 if it gets the loans.
"A critical new industry is taking shape before our eyes," said Charles Gassenheimer, Ener1 chief executive. "We have the technology, but we lack the domestic production capacity."
Expanded capacity will mean 1,300 new jobs, the company said. The company has facilities in Indianapolis and Noblesville, Ind.
Based on DOE data, Ener1 estimates the batteries it produces could save the U.S. economy up to $600 million at the gas pump and eliminate up to 1 billion tons of carbon emissions annually.
The Energy Department said it expects more applications for funding in the near future.
Ener1 has raised about $200 million, but said the low-interest loans are needed to meet expected demand for hybrid and electric cars.

Climate change threatens Lebanon’s legendary cedars

Lebanon’s majestic cedar trees have withstood the test of time for centuries but climate change is threatening the country’s most treasured symbol. Used by various civilisations throughout history for their strong and durable wood, Lebanon’s cedars are now on the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Red List as a “heavily threatened” species. Local experts and environmentalists warn that global warming could have a negative impact on the cedars.
“Enough talking about the need to preserve the cedars, it’s time for action. We must preserve the trees now,” said Nizar Hani, scientific coordinator of the Al-Shouf Cedar Nature Reserve in the mountainous Shouf area southeast of Beirut.
“All indications are that if the current climatic changes continue, the cedars could be in danger.” Lebanon’s largest reserve, where 25 per cent of the country’s 2,000 hectares (nearly 5,000 acres) of cedar trees are located, was established in 1996, stretching from Dahr al-Baidar in the north to Niha Mountain in the south.
Some of the reserve’s cedar trees, which belong to the pine family and have needle-like leaves bearing seeds in scaled clusters, are estimated to be 2,000 years old.
“The melting of snow on mountains as a result of climate change would lead to the disap pearance of the cedars in Lebanon,” said Wael Hmaidan, executive director of the League of Independent Activists, or IndyAct, a non-governmental organisation which focuses on environmental issues.
“We need to tackle climate change and limit its effects before it’s too late.” Snow is a must for the tall evergreen cedars, which have a natural range of 1,200-1,800 metres (4,000-5,900 feet) above sea level. Warmer temperatures would push the trees higher up in order to grow and develop.“If there is no combination of rain, snow and frost for several consecutive days, the seeds of the cedar won’t be disseminated. We also need cold treatment for the seeds to be able to germinate,” said Fady Asmar, a consultant and expert in Mediterranean forests.
“They also need summer mist, which compensates for water needs. Any change in these conditions for several consecutive years might eventually lead to the death of trees.” Lebanon’s cedars were heavily deforested for thousands of years, and the remaining trees are now kept in protected areas. Deforestation accounts for around a fifth of global emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases.
It is said the Phoenicians used cedars for building trade and military ships, as well as houses and temples, while their resin was key to the ancient Egyptians for mummification. It is also believed that King Solomon’s Temple in Jerusalem was built from Lebanon’s cedars, which were designated as the dwelling of the gods in the Sumerian epic of Gilgamesh. Three other species of cedar exist in Turkey, Cyprus, Morocco and Algeria as well as Afghanistan and India. “The rainy season was bad this year. We can’t easily control climate conditions,” said Hani. Drought was blamed for the infestation of a wood wasp called Cephalcia Tannourinensis that ravaged cedars in Tannourin village in northern Lebanon several years ago.
“This (wasp) lives with the cedars in the same environment. But warm weather and rising temperatures have extended its life cycle from once a year to three times a year, leading to the problem of Tannourin,” said Hani. “Such pests become very active when temperatures increase.”While Hmaidan warned that global warming could “transform Lebanon into a desert,” Asmar said the effects of climate change in the long run can not yet be measured. “Unfortunately, Arab countries are not exerting enough efforts like the rest of the world to face climate challenges,” Hmaidan said. “They are not considering their long-term interests and do not realise the dangers of climate change which might transform Lebanon into a desert.” However, Asmar said there was not enough data available to sound the death knell of the trees at this time.

Las Vegas’s underworld Mob museum to showcase underworld

Las Vegas is not generally known for its educational offerings, but by next year it plans to offer a new attraction that the mayor is convinced will be a hit with tourists: a mob museum.
The planned $50 million Las Vegas Museum of Organized Crime and Law Enforcement, due to open in 2010, would be the first centre to examine the complex role of Mafia families in American history and culture as well as the FBI agents who sought their demise.
It is expected to occupy the entire 42,000 square feet of a threestorey neo-classical building in downtown Las Vegas which was the first federal courthouse in the county and then served as a post office. Visitors will be allowed to have their mug shots taken, wiretap their friends and stand in mock police line-ups, museum creative director Dennis Barrie said. The building itself is already part of mob lore, having staged a 1950 hearing held by the Senate Special Committee to Investigate Crime in Interstate Commerce into organized crime spearheaded by Tennessee senator Estes Kefauver. In 2000, the federal government deeded the decaying building to the city for one dollar on the promise that it would be restored and used for educational or museum purposes. Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, a former defence attorney who defended several Mafia figures in the 1970s and 1980s, hit upon the idea of commemorating this angle of history.
“I’m saying to myself, although my mother was a great artist, nobody’s going to come to downtown Las Vegas to look at paintings, they’re not going to look at watercolours, they’re not going to look at porcelain, they’re not going to look at miniature trains,” said Goodman.
“What will they look at? They’ll look at something that’s really embedded in history, that makes us unique and distinctive from any other city, that has a historical nexus, a keystone because of the Kefauver hearings, and I said, ‘A mob museum!’ And I think it’s natural.” As simple as that sounds, the idea has had critics. The mayor acknowledged the Italian-American community was so alarmed by the idea when he first hit upon it in 2002 that he backed off at first with a quip that he had actually proposed a “mop museum.” To allay concerns of those who fear the museum will glorify criminals and their acts, Goodman recruited retired FBI Special Agent-inCharge Ellen Knowlton to chair the museum’s non-profit board.
Knowlton convinced the FBI to loan a variety of pieces of evidence to the museum for display.

Saturday, February 7, 2009

Bt cottonseed in Pakistan

Having made inroads into several developing countries, Monsanto, the leading GM seed multinational, has been trying over the years to enter into Pakistan market to sell its Bt cotton and other GM seeds despite reservations of the country’s scientists and cotton growers.
Initially, the hybrid was welcomed everywhere for the promises of higher yields but later scorned when it began playing havoc with crops.

The American multinational, whose GM products have not been without controversy for their effects on crops, human health, environment and land despite a dramatic rise in output, is still resisted in Europe. United Kingdom’s ministry of agriculture had, in recent past, issued a strongly worded advice against any approval of a multinational’s GM cotton. Monsanto has been pursuing its case with the officials concerned in Pakistan for long and using various means and skills to win a favourable contract.
In May last year, the company succeeded in getting a Letter of Intent from the ministry of food, agriculture and livestock (Minfal) for marketing certified Bt cottonseed in the country. On December 4, its officials gave a briefing to the Steering Committee on Bt Cotton which was also attended by the federal agriculture minister and it is believed the ministry was greatly inclined to finally let it enter the Pakistan market.Which kind of seeds it would be allowed to sell is not clear although domestic research has been going on for long to determine or evolve the varieties that would suit Pakistani soil and environment. The National Institute of Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering (NIBGE), Faisalabad, Central Cotton Research Institute in Multan and Centre of Excellence in Molecular Biology(CEMB), University of Punjab, Lahore, have been engaged in developing varieties through genetic engineering with a view to combating various diseases. NIBGE, in particular, is said to have made considerable progress in that direction.The institutes are trying to blend foreign genetically modified seeds with local input to make Bt seeds more economical with a better yield and effective pest resistant. Both India and China have adopted modified seeds but are entirely dependent on the foreign multinationals.
A news report on January 20 stated that an agreement between Islamabad and Monsanto was about to be signed for purchase of its Bt cottonseeds worth one billion dollars that would enhance the country’s cotton production by 40 per cent.
The seeds are to be produced under weed control technology called ‘Bollguard II with round-up ready flex’, which, it is claimed, would save up to $250 million now spent on pest control. The multinational would charge $21 for sowing its inputs over one acre. Of that amount, it would return $4.2 to the farmer for research purpose. The proposed or expected deal has been declared as ‘a milestone’ in agriculture in general and cotton cultivation in particular.
Monsanto, it may be mentioned, dominates the global Bt cottonseed market and that about two thirds of such cotton seeds sold in the world come from it or its subsidiaries. Bt cotton is grown in a number of countries, particularly in the US, Australia, China and India.
Pakistan has been producing small quantities of a variety of biotech crops on experimental basis but none have been commercialised yet despite the issuance of National Biosafety Guidelines in April 2005. The National Institute for Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering (NIBGE) had even submitted in the recent past an application to the National Biosafety Committee (NBC) for the approval of a GM cotton variety. There had been efforts in recent years to cultivate Bt cotton in some areas illegally under an assumption that it would give much higher yield. In the year 200102, for instance, its cultivation was undertaken in the lower and upper Sindh areas from the seeds smuggled from India.The ministry of agriculture did not take notice of it. Two years’ observation of this transgenic variety, under the climatic conditions of upper Sindh, showed its performance was very erratic.
Latest reports say the smuggled Bt cot ton is being cultivated on about 2.7 million acres of land against total cotton cultivation over eight million acres.The current requirement is 16 million bales but nearly 12 million bales are produced. So, the shortfall of about four million bales have to be imported. An official says that the country can save $5 billion annually by increasing the yield by cultivating Bt cotton. Scientifically speaking, the Bt or Bacillus thuringiensis is a toxin-producing bacterium found naturally in soils. Scientists have isolated certain genes responsible for the production of these toxins and have then used genetic engineering techniques to insert them into cotton. The resulting cotton plants produce the Bt toxins and susceptible
pests die when they eat them. In 2002, Bt cotton was cultivated on 4.6 million hectares around the world, roughly 13 per cent of the total cotton acreage.
In China and the US, two countries with a long experience of growing the crop, Bt cotton initially brought down the use of pesticides. But before long, pests not controlled by the Bt plants, which had once been of minor importance, started to cause serious crop damage, and farmers were soon back to their former levels of pesticide use. In a recent study of the experiences of 481 cotton farmers in five provinces of China, researchers from Cornell University found that the early income gains that the farmers had achieved with Bt cotton during the 2000–2001 season had completely disappeared three years later.
In Pakistan, there are two major types of pests that are damaging our cotton crops – sucking and chewing. To certain extent, it is easier to control sucking pest by strong pesticides but it is difficult to control chewing pests – American bollworms,Army, Pink and Spotted – causing major devastations in the cotton crop fields. The recently emerged Burewala strain of the cotton leaf curl virus (CLCV) is attributed to the unauthorised cultivation of imported Bt cotton by growers.
According to P.V. Satheesh, Convenor of the Andhra Pradesh Coalition in Defence of Diversity, India’s experience in the first year (2002) was a disaster, yielding 35 per cent less than the non-Bt cotton, even while costing four times more.
In the third year, new diseases spread through the soils and the plant. Cattle which grazed Bt cotton plants started dying. And in 2006, Bt plants started wilting, forcing farmers to uproot them. The disease spread to nearby villages, spreading panic among farmers.

Largest Database of art


Tens of thousands of Buddhist manuscripts, paintings and other treasures scattered around the world have been brought together in probably the world’s largest computer database of its kind.
The International Dunhuang Project, based at the British Library in London, is an evergrowing digital assemblage that makes it possible to study online around 160,000 images of 80,000 objects dug up in the deserts of Chinese central Asia and now in institutions across Europe, Asia and North America.
More than a third of the artefacts are in British collections, having been taken — some would say plundered — by the Hungarian-born British explorer and archaeologist Sir Aurel Stein who travelled the Silk Road in the first decade of the 20th century.
The IDP has centres in China, Russia, Japan and Germany as well as its London base, and early next year the Bibliotheque Nationale de France in Paris will become a partner when its collection of 10,000 treasures goes online. This will make available the vast hoard of manuscripts discovered by Stein’s French contemporary Paul Pelliot in the Dunhuang Library Cave — this includes many secular texts, forming a basis for the development of economic, social and legal history of medieval China. There are also plans for the Institute of Korean Culture in Seoul to become a partner later in 2009.
Each centre maintains images from their collections on their own servers. “Keeping their own images on their servers while having everything in one place on the web makes people less anxious about their own data. There are no issues with copyright, with digitisation centres in each institution having read-write access to other data on the database,” said the IDP’s director, Susan Whitfield, who has been with the project since it was founded in 1994 and oversaw its launch online in 1998.
The Dunhuang cave complex on the edge of the Gobi desert is the most famous archaeological site in the region, from which Stein took a vast array of treasures including manuscripts in Chinese, Sanskrit, Tibetan and even Judaeo-Persian, as well as in obscure central Asian languages such as Sogdian and Tocharian.
But the IDP does not focus only on Dunhuang, and it includes artefacts from around 200 sites in the far west of China, where more treasures are being discovered all the time.
Among the most remarkable items in IDP’s database is a coloured star-map in the British Library dating back to about AD 700, which the project’s website notes is “almost certainly the oldest extant manuscript star-chart from any civilisation”. The scroll can be viewed in great detail on the website, together with Stein’s original map of the Dunhuang caves.
Whitfield said the project, which has about 10 staff in London and around 20 in the other centres, does not rely on outside technical consultants. All staff were expected to have a reasonable level of technical skills as well expertise in their own specialist subjects, ranging from early Chinese Buddhism to the history of paper making.
“Technical skills are part of our remit,” said Whitfield, who has a doctorate in Tang dynasty historiography. “Outsourcing technical aspects leads to people not understanding what is going on ... It doesn’t work for projects like ours with a large technical element.” The IDP believes in making its technical standards transparent and uniform and local staff are trained so that quality and consistency of data and images are maintained.
A Chinese version of the database was developed in 2001-02, and the database was redeveloped in 2005 involving the use of XML based on the TEI standard for the cataloguing and bibliographical data. These are stored in 4D and accessed using a 4D XML plug-in. Active 4D is used to serve the website and database.
The website, which is in English, Chinese, Japanese, Russian and German, has also been continually redesigned to include more functionality and data. It is now displayed in HTML, CSS and JavaScript, and current projects include plans to implement map layers for Google Earth.
Photographing delicate manuscripts and textiles is a slow and painstaking process, but by 2015 the project aims to have catalogued, digitised and made freely available online 90 per cent of the Dunhuang collections. The IDP has a budget of around £350,000 a year, which Whitfield said is “fairly modest” given the size of the project.
Whitfield said one of her chief aims was to get the National Museum of India on board. The museum in Delhi has around 11,000 items, mainly Buddhist paintings obtained by Stein, few of which have been published.

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Monterrey and Doha

The Monterrey conference (March 18-22, 2002) was convened to address key financial and development issues faced by developing countries. According to the conference’s consensus document, a firm agreement was reached to “eradicate poverty, achieve sustained economic growth and promote sustainable development.” The Monterrey event was a star studded with 50 heads of state or government participating in it.

The significant features of the Monterrey accord were: a truly global consensus, unveiling the blueprint of a new partnership, anchored on shared responsibility of developed and developing countries for achieving development goals including the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

The accord laid down a six-point agenda of action: (a) domestic resource mobilisation for development, (b) international resource mobilisation (FDI and other private flows for development, (c) substantial propoor liberalisation of international trade, (d) improving international financial and technical co-operation for development, (official development assistance), (e) resolving problems of external debt, and (f) addressing important systemic issues germane to financing for development.

According to the latest World Bank study, no less than 1.4 billion people are now living in extreme poverty (revised poverty line: $1.25 or less per day) as compared to 1.9 billion 25 years earlier. The reduction in poverty has been uneven across regions but it has been dramatic. Poverty may increase in the current global economic slump and greater efforts are needed to halve it by 2015.

Domestic resources: The Monterrey Consensus stated: “…a critical challenge is to ensure the necessary internal conditions for mobilising domestic savings, both public and private, sustaining adequate levels of productive investments and increasing human capacity.” In the years following the Monterrey accord, many developing countries have made significant progress in key areas of their economies by adopting sound macroeconomic policies, building pro-development institutions and thereby contributed to an increased mobilisation of domestic resources.

Substantial progress also took place in many countries in establishing a congenial investment climate. Good governance including combating corruption played an important part in this success. However, a large number of countries have not been so successful. Something needs to be done by the world community for this group of vulnerable nations. Others need to focus, in particular, on building institutions for structural change and better performance of economies and societies.

Private capital flows: These flows have assumed great importance for developing countries during the last 20 years, reaching a record level of $647 billion in 2006; but the poorest 51 countries were recipients of only eight per cent of total capital flows.

Pro-active strategies need to be introduced to make the process more inclusive by provision of appropriate incentives and guarantees by affluent countries to their entrepreneurs.

Liberalisation: Unfortunately, the Doha Round of trade negotiations has again collapsed, dashing to ground hopes for a better tomorrow for low-income countries. Against this somber backdrop, it is imperative to renew the commitment to reach an accord in these talks. What is required is an approach, anchored on long-term enlightened self- interest by industrial countries and pragmatic flexibility by leading developing countries.

Financial and technical cooperation: Since the Monterrey Conference, there has been a significant turnaround in the overall volume of aid flows. Official Development Assistance (ODA) in real terms (on current prices) doubled between 2001 and 2007. But a significant part of this increase consisted of one time grants for debt relief. The increase in ODA due to this reason has ceased to be available and therefore, a real decline has occurred in aid stream now at $103.7 billion, registering a fall of 8.4 per cent in real terms.

Some donor countries have made encouraging ODA commitments e.g. European Union for 0.56 per cent of gross national income (GNI) by 2010 and 0.7 per cent by 2015. Equally important is the aid targets by the G-8 countries, envisaging an increase in their ODA to $130 billion by 2010. The full implementation of these targets is vital to realisation of the millennium development goals of halving the level of extreme poverty by 2015.

Owing to the global financial crisis, donors are now facing extreme pressure. It is important that they avoid making cuts in aid budgets.

Debt relief: Debt servicing liability for a considerable number of low and middle-income countries is still too high. The existing international debt resolution mechanisms, including the Paris Club, should ideally guarantee equivalent and just treatment of all creditors and debtors but owing to a number of constraints, they cannot do so.

It is necessary to improve the international financial mechanisms for debt crisis prevention and resolution. The partnership principle of Monterrey demands that debt resolution is regarded as a joint responsibility of debtors and creditors.

Systemic issues: Despite efforts, progress in strengthening global governance has proved so far inadequate. Many fundamental changes in the governance regime of the global economic and financial institutions are needed. The G-20 nations in their meeting at Sao Paulo, a few days back, have advocated overhaul of the IMF and the World Bank. Among other things, greater efforts need to be made to enhance the voice and participation of developing countries on the IMF and the World Bank boards.

Specifically, changes should be made in the governing law of these institutions to prevent one member with the largest amount of votes (quotas/shares) to block the will of other shareholders.

Doha will be an important opportunity to review the progress of journey started at Monterrey. There have been some encouraging achievements and some lags and setbacks. Lessons must be learnt and journey should continue with greater zeal.

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Sub-Prime Fiasco

Sub-Prime borrowers are defined as borrowers with a “bad credit history”. These borrowers have lesser credibility as compared to the normal conventional “prime borrowers”. Sub-prime borrowers also face high default risk, since some/most of them have faced bankruptcy in the past or have not been able to meet their debt obligations.
The broad category of these borrowers also incorporates the ones who have had lesser experience with debt and have a credit score (FICO score) below 620 (the score ranges from 300 to 850).
It is due to this high default risk on part of the borrowers that lenders demand greater compensation in form of higher interest rates. Sub- prime loans come in a variety of forms including sub-prime mortgages, car loans and credit cards. The most popular from among these aforementioned credit lines have indeed been sub prime mortgages. These mortgages are based on adjustable rate mortgages (arms) and are denoted by symbols such as 3/27.
The sum of the two numbers quotes the tenure or the time period of the mortgage (which in this case is 30 years), with the first number representing the number of years for which the interest rate on the mortgage remains fixed, regardless of market rates, while the subsequent number denotes the number of years for which the interest or the sub prime rate is adjusted according to a benchmark index.

According to the Wall Street Journal published in 2006, 61 per cent of the borrowers receiving the sub prime mortgages had FICO/ credit scores high enough to qualify as normal “prime borrowers”. But given the low interest rates for the first couple of years and an initial down payment lesser than $10,000, the “prime borrowers” were lured into taking on these risky sub-prime mortgages.

After the catastrophic events occurring on 9/11, the Federal Reserve (the American central bank), in an attempt to revive the collapsing American economy, started slashing the Fed Funds rate (inter bank lending rates), so as to increase consumption and spending by increasing money demand. Things were however running smoothly and the low interest rates were reaping the desired benefits for the American economy till the fear of inflation, or a persistent increase in the general price level, crept in.

In order to curb inflation, the Federal Reserve started increasing interest rates.This led to a proportional increase in the floating/adjustable part of the sub prime rates, which are linked to the benchmark interest rates and adjusted accordingly. This sudden and unexpected hike in the interest rate triggered massive foreclosures (seizure of property held as collateral by the lending bank) in the American mortgage industry.

The highly inflated so-called “real estate bubble”, which is very similar to the one currently being created in Dubai, finally exploded as the number of foreclosures in the American mortgage sector started picking pace. It was only a matter of time before the large investments made by mortgage firms and investment banks started going down the drain. To make matters even worse, a large portion of these “sour” mortgages were cut off into tranches, and sold off to investment banks, commercial banks and even the general public in the form of mortgage backed securities, after getting approval from different credit rating agencies, with the whole process being known as “securitisation”.

The originators(lenders) of these bad mortgages eventually thought that a bunch of hot shot investment bankers from Wall Street, by unleashing their creative skills, would come up with something innovative, that would help mitigate the risk of holding these “sour” mortgages by transferring the risk from their balance sheet on to a third party. This is a glimpse of how the process of securitization originated.

Some investment banks even went on as far as transferring their portfolios of “bad” mortgages to their fake off shore counterparts. One might wonder as to how these investment bankers were able to get good or at least decent ratings from credit rating agencies for the mortgage backed securities. Putting it in simple words, these highly qualified bankers were actually out “shopping” for credit ratings.

The rating agencies, after being intimidated by these investment giants, were forced to assign good ratings to their mortgage backed securities.After the formal window dressing process, these junk securities were sold off to investors, who unfortunately, were under the wrong impression of having sensibly invested their savings in lucrative ventures. Little did they realise that they would soon be weeping for having made the wrong investment decisions. It is also worth mentioning that some of these “dishonest” credit rating agencies are the same ones that have been very particular in downgrading our country’s credit ratings and making claims that we are on the verge of bankruptcy.

High rates of default by the sub prime borrowers led to the banks facing a liquidity crunch(severe shortage of cash), due to which they were unable to pay returns/interest to the holders of mortgage backed securities. Soon, the liabilities of many of these banks exceeded their assets, and once declared insolvent, many of these banks filed for bankruptcy.

The Federal Reserve played a key role in bailing out these distressed investment giants by acting as the lender of the last resort. But was it a wise decision to use hard earned tax payers money in providing temporary relief to those greedy banks that took on such risky investments? The $700 billion bail out plan by the Federal Reserve and the presence of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), seem to promote a phenomenon known as “moral hazard”.

Lets say hypothetically that a person gets a health insurance as well as a car insurance. Now this person is highly likely to drive recklessly and risk his life, given the fact that he knows that he is insured and will be compensated in the event of a loss or an injury. This explains the presence of moral hazard. Similarly, if the regulators keep on coming to the rescue of these banks who made certain reckless investment decisions by putting their shareholder’s and depositor’s money at stake, the banks are bound to behave in this fashion.

These private sector banks are the ones who have been favouring more of deregulation and comparing regulation with strangulation. But once in distress, they are the first ones to approach the government and the regulators for their assistance. A valuable lesson to be learned from the crisis is that a high level of deregulation can lead to a misery. In reality, there is no perfect example of a free market, or a market where there is no government intervention.

Certain checks and balances are necessary at the micro level in every sector of the economy to ensure it’s smooth functioning.The absence of a state can lead to anarchy and total chaos, which is exactly what we have observed in the sub prime debacle.

Monday, February 2, 2009

Land degradation and Farm productivity.

The term land degradation signifies that the land has become less productive and supportive of human life and livestock or is less able to renew its natural vegetation. It is therefore a matter of major concern for those who care for land and environment. In Pakistan, land degradation encompasses deforestation and desertification, salinity and sodicity, soil erosion, water-logging, depletion of soil fertility and negative nutrient balances.
Pakistan is located in arid and semi-arid climatic zones. Generally high evapo-transpiration in semi-arid and arid zones is the basic cause for salt accumulation on the soil surface. The average summer temperature is about 40°C and the minimum winter temperature remains between 2°C to 5°C. The annual rainfall varies between 100 mm to 700 mm throughout the country. The evaporation rate is generally very high and exceeds that of precipitation. Thus, the insufficient rainfall followed by high evaporative demand and shallow ground water depth, enhances the movement of salts towards soil surface that leads to salinity and erosion of the soils.
Accumulation of rain and floodwaters in natural depressions is the major cause of primary salinity. Secondary salinity due to man-made causes is related to seepage from canals, lack of drainage, use of poor quality groundwater for irrigation, and in sufficient leaching and poor land management practices.
Salinity and sodicity: At country level, 6.28 million ha of the area is affected with salinity and sodicity.The majority of salt-affected soils are saline-sodic in nature. These salt-affected soils are causing potential reduction in yield.
Soil erosion: Soil erosion implies to loss or removal of surface soil material through the action of moving water, wind or ice. About 13.05 million hectares of the area is affected by water erosion and about 6.17 million hectares by water erosion. Soil erosion is taking place at an alarming rate and is mainly due to deforestation in the north. Water erosion is prominent on steep slopes such as the Potohar track and surrounding areas, an area extensively used for cultivation.
The highest rate of erosion recorded so far is at 150-165 tones/hectare/year. The Indus River carried the fifth largest load of sediment (4.49t/h) in the world in 1990. According to some estimates the Indus is adding 500,000 tones of sediment to the Tarbela Reservoir every day, reducing the life of the dam by 22 per cent and the capacity of reservoir by 16 per cent. Wind erosion has a relatively lower impact than water erosion. However, the combination of the two is more devastating. This reduces the productivity of land by 1.5-7.5 per cent per year. This affects almost onefifth of the Punjab.
Water Logging: It appears that problem of water logging may not be as serious now as it was in the past. The problem has reduced due to prolonged drought and excessive mining of ground water.
According to a conservative estimate, the impacts of degradation and biodiversity loss on productivity and public health are in the tune of three per cent of GDP per year. It would be higher if toxic waste disposal, biodiversity, river and coastal resource depletion were taken into account.
It is, therefore, necessary for the sustainable economic future of the country and a friendly environment to cope with land degradation problem on war-footing. Productive lands and healthy environment are the only gift worth passing to our next generations.

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